Methodology Overview: "The Primer Report™" relies heavily upon regression analysis, a powerful statistics tool. Described in a non-technical manner, regression analysis looks at data from a prior period and attempts to show how one variable fluctuates with changes in other variables. In this case, Equinistics LLC looked at how final sales prices at the 2006 and 2007 auctions changed with variables such as the yearling’s sire. Data for a multitude of variables was painstakingly recorded. A statistical software package then determined which of those many variables appeared to correlate with the final sales price. Variables that did not show a pattern with final sales prices were thrown out. In the end, the statistical software produced an equation to show how the final sales price changed depending upon the values of the selected variables.
Those same variables were then chosen for the yearlings at the 2008 Keeneland Sale. The values for those variables were plugged into the equation, and the final points for each yearling were then predicted.
Please note that the report ranks the yearlings on a points system. Why aren't the predicted sales prices shown instead? Please remember that the pre-auction catalog analysis is a portion of the process involved in buying a racehorse. The value in points provided by the software package is intended to be a preliminary estimate that is more finely honed after the buyers have had the chance to view and judge the yearlings in person. Additionally, exceptional or very weak interest in a particular yearling may distort the final price.
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